Props audit trail — WNBA
Props ledger.
Different rules.
Last updated: 2026-10-26 10:00 AM ET · WNBA only · Deduplicated
WNBA player props (points, rebounds, assists) are tracked separately from the main Soccer & MLB audit trail. The pricing methodology is different, and we want subscribers to understand exactly what that means before drawing conclusions from these numbers.
Why this is a separate page: The main EdgeLeverage trail prices every pick by devigging the sharp consensus from six marketmaker books — Pinnacle, Prophet, Bookmaker, Sporttrade, LowVig, and BetOnline. That methodology produces a reliable fair-price benchmark.
WNBA props use a different source: Player prop markets for WNBA are priced off the SportsGameOdds (SGO) consensus — an aggregated market across multiple sportsbooks. There is no Pinnacle WNBA props market, so we cannot benchmark against the same sharp reference we use for soccer. The implied edge is real in the sense that it beats the consensus price, but it is not the same claim as "this beats Pinnacle's closed line."
CLV is not tracked the same way: Because there is no sharp closing line to compare against, closing line value is not reported for these picks. Win/loss outcome and ROI are the primary metrics here.
What this data does tell you: Whether the model-based selection is finding +EV opportunities in the consensus prop market. Over a large enough sample, a positive hit rate above the implied breakeven, or consistent ROI, would validate the approach.
Sample so far
Aggregate stats (991 graded picks)
Graded picks
991
501W – 490L – 0P
Hit rate
50.6%
ignoring pushes · sample too small
ROI (flat 25% Kelly)
+4.0%
no Pinnacle benchmark · sample too small
Avg Odds
+107
2.07 decimal · 48.4% implied
Day-by-day log
Raw ledger
| Date | Record | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 | 0W–1L | Atlanta Dream @ New York Liberty |
| Oct 02 | 51W–47L | Toronto Tempo @ Atlanta Dream |
| Oct 01 | 2W–3L | Minnesota Lynx @ New York Liberty |
| Sep 28 | 1W–0L | Washington Mystics @ Atlanta Dream |
| Sep 25 | 1W–0L | Chicago Sky @ Washington Mystics |
| Sep 21 | 1W–0L | Washington Mystics @ Indiana Fever |
| Sep 19 | 10W–8L | Las Vegas Aces @ Seattle Storm |
| Sep 18 | 7W–3L | Connecticut Sun @ Atlanta Dream |
| Sep 10 | 2W–0L | Golden State Valkyries @ New York Liberty |
| Sep 01 | 7W–5L | Connecticut Sun @ Dallas Wings |
| Aug 31 | 5W–4L | Golden State Valkyries @ Portland Fire |
| Aug 30 | 7W–10L | Toronto Tempo @ Phoenix Mercury |
| Aug 29 | 26W–33L | Portland Fire @ Atlanta Dream |
| Aug 28 | 9W–6L | Washington Mystics @ Phoenix Mercury |
| Aug 27 | 20W–14L | Toronto Tempo @ Seattle Storm |
| Aug 26 | 26W–17L | Golden State Valkyries @ Minnesota Lynx |
| Aug 25 | 3W–1L | Washington Mystics @ Portland Fire |
| Aug 24 | 36W–28L | Seattle Storm @ Dallas Wings |
| Aug 23 | 30W–27L | Indiana Fever @ New York Liberty |
| Aug 22 | 39W–39L | Las Vegas Aces @ New York Liberty |
| Aug 21 | 16W–12L | Atlanta Dream @ Los Angeles Sparks |
| Aug 20 | 8W–20L | Toronto Tempo @ Washington Mystics |
| Aug 19 | 20W–23L | Dallas Wings @ Golden State Valkyries |
| Aug 17 | 5W–17L | Indiana Fever @ Atlanta Dream |
| Aug 16 | 4W–6L | Los Angeles Sparks @ Washington Mystics |
| Aug 15 | 17W–10L | Dallas Wings @ Indiana Fever |
| Aug 14 | 5W–5L | Atlanta Dream @ Connecticut Sun |
| Aug 13 | 14W–5L | Minnesota Lynx @ Portland Fire |
| Aug 12 | 13W–17L | New York Liberty @ Indiana Fever |
| Aug 11 | 5W–6L | Golden State Valkyries @ Los Angeles Sparks |
| Aug 10 | 8W–2L | Phoenix Mercury @ Washington Mystics |
| Aug 09 | 2W–1L | Las Vegas Aces @ New York Liberty |
| Jul 20 | 10W–11L | New York Liberty @ Seattle Storm |
| Jul 17 | 91W–109L | Toronto Tempo @ Atlanta Dream |
How to read this
Methodology notes
Pricing source
WNBA player prop odds are sourced via SportsGameOdds (SGO), which aggregates lines from multiple sportsbooks into a consensus market. The scanner identifies picks where the SGO implied probability is below what the Poisson player model projects, adjusted for pace, matchup, and recent form.
This is not the same as the Pinnacle devig methodology used in the soccer and spreads scanners. The consensus market is softer than Pinnacle's sharp line, so the implied edge is a different kind of claim.
Why no CLV
Closing line value requires a sharp, liquid closing line to compare against. For soccer totals and spreads, Pinnacle fills that role reliably. For WNBA player props, no equivalent sharp market exists, so CLV is not tracked. The primary validation metric here is long-run hit rate vs. implied probability and ROI vs. flat staking.
What this is and isn't
This is an honest record of a model-based overlay on a softer market. It is not a Pinnacle-benchmarked edge claim. The grading is transparent, the timestamps are pre-game, and the methodology is disclosed in full. Draw your own conclusions — and watch the sample grow before drawing any.