Props audit trail — WNBA
Props ledger.
Different rules.
Last updated: 2026-07-27 10:00 AM ET · WNBA only · Deduplicated
WNBA player props (points, rebounds, assists) are tracked separately from the main Soccer & MLB audit trail. The pricing methodology is different, and we want subscribers to understand exactly what that means before drawing conclusions from these numbers.
Why this is a separate page: The main EdgeLeverage trail prices every pick by devigging the sharp consensus from six marketmaker books — Pinnacle, Prophet, Bookmaker, Sporttrade, LowVig, and BetOnline. That methodology produces a reliable fair-price benchmark.
WNBA props use a different source: Player prop markets for WNBA are priced off the SportsGameOdds (SGO) consensus — an aggregated market across multiple sportsbooks. There is no Pinnacle WNBA props market, so we cannot benchmark against the same sharp reference we use for soccer. The implied edge is real in the sense that it beats the consensus price, but it is not the same claim as "this beats Pinnacle's closed line."
CLV is not tracked the same way: Because there is no sharp closing line to compare against, closing line value is not reported for these picks. Win/loss outcome and ROI are the primary metrics here.
What this data does tell you: Whether the model-based selection is finding +EV opportunities in the consensus prop market. Over a large enough sample, a positive hit rate above the implied breakeven, or consistent ROI, would validate the approach.
Sample so far
Aggregate stats (347 graded picks)
Graded picks
347
160W – 187L – 0P
Hit rate
46.1%
ignoring pushes · sample too small
ROI (flat 25% Kelly)
-1.2%
no Pinnacle benchmark · sample too small
Avg Odds
+115
2.15 decimal · 46.6% implied
Day-by-day log
Raw ledger
| Date | Record | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 20 | 13W–15L | New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces |
| Jul 17 | 147W–172L | Toronto Tempo @ Atlanta Dream |
How to read this
Methodology notes
Pricing source
WNBA player prop odds are sourced via SportsGameOdds (SGO), which aggregates lines from multiple sportsbooks into a consensus market. The scanner identifies picks where the SGO implied probability is below what the Poisson player model projects, adjusted for pace, matchup, and recent form.
This is not the same as the Pinnacle devig methodology used in the soccer and spreads scanners. The consensus market is softer than Pinnacle's sharp line, so the implied edge is a different kind of claim.
Why no CLV
Closing line value requires a sharp, liquid closing line to compare against. For soccer totals and spreads, Pinnacle fills that role reliably. For WNBA player props, no equivalent sharp market exists, so CLV is not tracked. The primary validation metric here is long-run hit rate vs. implied probability and ROI vs. flat staking.
What this is and isn't
This is an honest record of a model-based overlay on a softer market. It is not a Pinnacle-benchmarked edge claim. The grading is transparent, the timestamps are pre-game, and the methodology is disclosed in full. Draw your own conclusions — and watch the sample grow before drawing any.